pubucations  op 
The  American  Academy  of  Pouticai.  and  Social  vScience. 

No.  1 80. 


Issued  Fortnightly.  August  25,  1896. 


The  Growth  of  the  French 

Canadian  Race  in 

America. 


BY 

John  Davidson, 

i  I' 

University  of  New  Brunswick. 


A  PAPER  SUBMITTED  TO  THE 
AMERICAN  ACADEMY  OF  POLITICAL  AND  SOCIAL  SCIENCE 


PHILADELPHIA : 
AMERICAN  academy  OF  POLITICAL  AND  SOCIAL  SCIENCE. 

Enclamd  :  P.  S.  King  &  Son,  la  and  14  King  St.,  Westminster,  London,  S.  W. 
Francb  :  L.  Larose,  rue  SouflBot  22,  Paris.    Germany  :  Gustav  Fischer,  Jena, 
Italt  :  Direzione  del  Giomale  degji  F.conomistii  Rome,  via  Ripetta  loa. 
Spain:  E.  Capdeville,  9  Plaza  de  Santa  Aiia,  Madrid. 


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SEPARATE)  KDITIONS. 

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RELIEF  WORK  AT  THE  WELLS  MEMORIAL  INSTITUTE. 

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RELATION  OF  ECONOMIC  CONDITIONS  TO  THE  CAUSES 

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American  Academy  of  Political  and  Social  Science, 

STATION  B,  PHILADELPHIA. 


THE  GROWTH 

OF  THE 

FRENCH  CANADIAN  RACE 

IN 

AMERICA. 


It  would  be  idle  to  suggest  that  economists  have  come  to 
anything  like  a  general  agreement  regarding  Malthus' 
**  Laws  of  Population,"  and  it  is  too  late,  nowadays,  to  rest 
content  with  expressing  the  somewhat  contemptuous  wish 
that  critics  might  well  employ  a  portion  of  their  leisure  in 
reading  the  essay  which  they  criticise.  The  whole 
problem  is  still  in  controversy,  and  is  likely  to  remain  so 
wherever  the  industrial  conditions  under  which  Malthus 
wrote  are  absent.  A  great  deal  of  the  criticism  amounts 
1;o  little  more  than  a  disproportionate  statement  of  some 
of  the  checks  to  population;  a  sort  of  criticism  which  is 
really  a  corroboration  of  the  theory  criticised.  All  the 
evidence  collected  and  published  since  the  essay  appeared 
has  gone  to  show  that  population  rarely  treads  on  the 
limits  of  subsistence,  and  that  "  by  a  natural  tendency, 
without  any  violent  repression  from  external  forces  or 
any  painful  restraint  on  desires,  population  has  grown 
less  rapidly  than   wealth."*     This,   however,    is  simply 

*I<evasseur's  "  I,a  Population  Francaise,"  Vol.  iii,  p.  109. 

[213] 


2  Annals  of  the  American  Academy. 

further  evidence  in  addition  to  that  which  Malthus  accu- 
mulated in  the  successive  editions  of  the  essay,  whose 
many  laaincB  and  imperfections  he  readily  admits.  It  bears 
out  what  he  says  about  the  operation  of  checks  on  the 
principle  of  population;  and  demonstrates  that  the  moral 
check  is  much  more  important  than  the  physical  checks,  and 
that  for  the  ' '  limits  of  subsistence  ' '  we  must  substitute  the 
"  standard  of  comfort."  The  theory  of  the  "  Iron  Law  of 
Wages  "  has  undergone  a  similar  modification,  and  in  becom- 
ing more  accurate  has  become  less  exact  and  precise. 
Speaking  generally,  one  may  say  that  his  critics  have 
endeavored  to  show  that  in  numberless  instances  and  from 
an  infinite  variety  of  social,  political,  economic  and  reli- 
gious causes,  the  ' '  Laws  ' '  were  steadily  counteracted  and 
produced  no  effect,  and  that  therefore  such  laws  could  not 
exist.  What  they  should  have  shown  was  that  the  laws 
were  so  steadily  counteracted  by  forces  which  were  as 
strong  and  as  permanent  as  the  alleged  laws  themselves,  that 
it  became  a  mere  barren  and  formal  statement  to  express 
them  as  Malthus  had  done;  that  while  it  might  be  true  that 
the  checks  of  vice  and  misery  were  simply  the  indirect 
methods  by  which  the  ultimate  check  of  famine  operates, 
this  could  not  be  claimed  of  the  check  on  population  exer- 
cised through  moral  restraint.  In  a  note  to  the  appendix 
(6th  Ed.,  Vol.  ii,  p.  453),  Malthus  writes:  "It  has  been 
said  that  I  have  written  a  quarto  volume  to  prove  that 
population  increases  in  a  geometrical  ratio,  and  food  in  an 
arithmetical  ratio;  but  this  is  not  quite  true.  The  first  of 
these  propositions  I  considered  as  proved  the  moment  the 
American  increase  was  related,  and  the  second  proposition 
as  soon  as  it  was  enumerated.  The  chief  object  of  my  work 
was  to  inquire  what  effects  these  laws,  which  I  considered  as 
established  in  the  first  six  pages,  had  produced  and  were 
likely  to  produce  on  society — a  subject  not  very  readily 
exhausted.  The  principal  fault  of  my  details  is  that  they 
are  not  sufficiently  particular;   but  this  was  a  fault  which  it 

[214J 


Growth  of  the  French  Canadian  Race.    3 

was  not  in  my  power  to  remedy.  It  would  be  a  most 
curious,  and  to  every  philosophical  mind,  a  most  interesting 
piece  of  information,  to  know  the  exact  share  of  the  full 
power  of  increase  which  each  existing  check  prevents;  but 
at  present  I  see  no  mode  of  obtaining  such  information." 

This  is  indeed  "  one  ha'penny  worth  of  bread  to  this 
intolerable  deal  of  sack,"   and  it  seems  rather  dispropor- 
tionate that  the  law  should  be  established  in  six  pages, 
while  a  ' '  quarto  volume  ' '  was  required  to  explain  why  the 
theory  and  the  facts  did  not  correspond.      The  main  object 
of  the  essay,  as  may  be  seen  even  by  running  through  the 
table  of  contents,  was  to  explain  the  counteracting  causes 
— to  explain,  for  instance,  the  fact  that  while,  at  the  end  of 
the  second  century,  the  popvilation  of  the  Roman  Empire 
was  about  45  millions,  to-day  the  population  of  the  same 
region  does  not  exceed  156  millions,  giving  an  annual  rate 
of  increase  of  merely  .0007  per  cent.     To  say  in  such  an 
instance  as  this  that  the  natural  tendency  of  population  is  to 
increase  at  the  annual  rate  of  3.19  per  cent,  doubling  itself 
every  twenty-five  years,  is  to  make  a  purely  formal  state- 
ment.     The  ' '  counteracting ' '  causes  are  so  much  the  more 
effectual,  that  to  call  them   counteracting  causes  seems  a 
ludicrous  disproportion.     The  utmost  that  can  possibly  be 
said  is  that  of  all  the  forces  present,  that  stated  in  Malthus' 
law   is  relatively  the  strongest,  and  we  cannot  say  what 
degree  of  strength  it  has  till  we  have  determined  ' '  the  exact 
share  of  the  full  power  of  the  increase  which  each  existing 
check  prevents."     The  line  which  critics  should  have  taken 
was  that  the  famous  "  Laws  of  Population"  were  purely 
hypothetical  and  mere  devices  of  arrangement  for  classifying 
the  known  facts.     The  place  of  hypothesis  in  economics  has 
been  much  discussed,  with  the  generally  accepted  conclusion 
that  an  hypothesis  is  little  more  than  a  device  of  arrange- 
ment.     An   hypothesis  may  be  a  more  or  less  adequate 
system  for  arranging  and  classifying;  and  judging  from  the 
disproportions  of  the  essay,  it  might  have  been  said  that 

[215] 


4     Annai^  of  the  American  Academy. 

Malthus  had  hit  upon  the  wrong  hypothesis,  that  some  one 
of  the  forces  which  he  discusses  as  checking  the  increase 
of  population  might  have  served  as  a  better  principle  of 
classification  than  the  one  he  chose. 

Indeed,  from  such  a  point  of  view,  it  is  really  immaterial 
what  hypothesis  has  been  chosen,  and  the  whole  ardor  of  the 
controversy  would  have  been  out  of  place.  There  can  be  no 
doubt,  however,  that  Malthus  meant  his  principle  of  popu- 
lation to  have  immediate  practical  application.  The  sub-title 
of  the  essay  (even  in  the  sixth  edition)  indicates  as  much. 
It  is  "  a  view  of  its  past  and  present  eflfects  on  human  happi- 
ness, with  an  inquiry  into  our  prospects  respecting  the  future 
removal  or  mitigation  of  the  evils  which  it  occasions."  The 
very  checks,  the  discussion  of  which  occupies  so  much  space, 
are  nothing  more  than  particular  modes  in  which  the  ulti- 
mate check  operates.  Malthus,  at  least,  puts  forward  the 
principle  as  an  hypothesis  which  is  an  adequate  expression 
of  the  facts. 

From  this  point  of  view  it  becomes  a  matter  of  great 
importance  that  a  standard  should  be  established.  If  the 
phenomena  are  to  be  accurately  estimated  and  measured,  if 
the  effects  of  the  various  counteracting  checks  are  to  be 
made  definite,  it  is  necessary  that  some  standard  rate  of 
increase  should  be  established,  that,  it  should  not  be  arbi- 
trary, but  natural  and  capable  of  bemg  applied  in  every 
community.  It  cannot  be  said  that  Malthus  is  anywhere 
at  much  pains  to  establish  such  a  standard.  He  quotes 
from  various  sources,  relying  ultimately  on  the  authority  of 
Benjamin  Franklin;  and  finally  advances  what  he  claims  is 
a  very  moderate  estimate,  viz. :  that  population,  when  left  to 
itself,  will  double  every  twenty-five  years.  He  points  out, 
by  the  way,  that  in  many  agricultural  districts,  where 
"vicious  customs  and  unwholesome  occupations  are  un- 
known," population  has  been  found  to  double  itself  in 
much  shorter  periods;  and  he  mentions  that  Sir  William 
Petty,  in  his  "Political  Arithmetic,"  had  given  it  as  his 

[216] 


Growth  op  the  French  Canadian  Rack.    5 

opinion  that  population  might  double  itself  within  ten  years. 
"  But  to  be  perfectly  sure  that  we  are  far  within  the  truth, 
we  will  take  the  slowest  of  these  rates  of  increase,  a  rate  in 
which  all  concurring  testimonies  agree,  and  which  has  been 
repeatedly  ascertained  to  be  from  procreation  alone. 

"  It  may  safely  be  pronounced,  therefore,  that  population, 
when  unchecked,  goes  on  doubling  itself  every  twenty-five 
years,  or  increases  in  a  geometrical  ratio." — Book  I.,  c.  i. 

Considering  how  much  depends  on  the  standard  rate  of 
increase,  one  cannot  say  that  Malthus  has  taken  the  task 
very  seriously.  Six  pages  can  hardly  be  deemed  a  sufficient 
proportion  of  his  space  to  be  devoted  to  so  important  an  end. 
It  may  be  that  his  proposition  that  population  increases  in  a 
geometrical  ratio  is  proved  so  soon  as  *  *  the  American  increase 
was  related;' '  but  surely  a  little  more  consideration  was  neces- 
sary to  show  that  this  was  the  American  rate  of  increase.  The 
statistics  on  which  he  has  based  this  moderate  rate  of  in- 
crease are  frequently  drawn  from  local  experiences,  and  are, 
as  often  as  not,  mere  casual  conjectures  on  which  little  reli- 
ance should  have  been  placed.  His  own  evidence  goes  to 
show  that  the  rate  of  increase  varied  from  being  a  minus 
quantity  up  to  such  a  figure  that  population  doubled  itself 
in  ten  years;  while  in  small  new  settlements  the  rate  of 
increase  was  affected  one  way  or  another  by  local  and  tem- 
porary causes  the  nature  of  which  we  cannot  now  determine, 
and  under  conditions  such  that  the  compensatory  effects  of 
averages  could  not  be  experienced.  Statistics  of  limited 
areas  and  short  periods  of  time  cannot  be  relied  on  to  furnish 
a  standard  by  which  so  much  is  to  be  judged.  For  it  should 
be  remembered  that  Malthus  was  incited  to  write  his  essay- 
that  he  might  forever  silence  the  Utopians,  such  as  Godwin 
and  Condorcet,  who  dreamed  of  a  new  heaven  and  a  new 
earth  by  a  redistribution  of  wealth.  But,  even  if  we  admit 
the  substantial  accuracy  of  his  authorities,  can  we  accept  as 
a  standard  the  experience  of  the  New  England  States  in  the 
century  and  a  half  before  1 800  ?   Especially  in  its  earlier  half, 

[217] 


6  Annai^  op  the  American  Academy. 

this  was  a  period  of  vicissitudes,  as  he  himself  admits  by 
taking  a  cautious  estimate.  The  growth  of  population  must 
have  been  nmch  affected  by  immigration  which  is  relatively 
more  important  the  farther  back  we  go.  Again,  a  tradition 
of  having  large  families  and  the  pressing  necessity  of  a  supply 
of  agricultural  labor  which  could  be  procured  in  no  other 
way  must  have  tended  to  promote  a  rapid  growth  of  popula- 
tion. The  evidence  is  too  local  and  too  temporary  to  support 
the  conclusions  based  on  it.  The  experience  of  the  New 
England  States  is  used  to  judge  the  whole  course  of  history. 
The  rate  of  increase  there  observed  is  set  up  as  the  normal 
rate  in  comparison  with  which  all  other  rates  of  increase 
are  abnormal,  and  to  be  accounted  for  by  counteracting 
causes.  Moreover  one  assumption,  which  is  indeed  explicitly 
stated  but  in  proof  of  which  not  even  six  pages,  nor  indeed 
six  sentences,  are  devoted,  runs  through  the  whole  essay; 
which  is,  that  the  natural  ' '  prolifickness ' '  of  all  races  is 
approximately  equal,  and  that  to  establish  the  rate  of  increase 
for  one  race  under  the  most  favorable  conditions  is  to  estab- 
lish the  standard  for  all  races.  How  much  justification 
there  may  be  for  this  last  assumption  need  not  here  be  dis- 
cussed, but  it  is  important ti-.-'t  we  Si  oild  keep  in  mind  that 
some  such  assumption  is  beh  nd  evec^'  application  of  the 
principle  of  population  in  a  '::•>. *^ry  ofner  than  that  in 
which  the  standard  rate  has  been  oLseiTf.d  and  in  industrial 
and  social  circumstances  diflferent  from  those  under  which 
the  "standard"  population  lived. 

Leaving  the  last  assumption  as  Malthus  stated  it  (and  it 
is  probably  doubtful  whether  more  than  a  general  presump- 
tion in  its  favor  could  be  established  even  by  the  most  wide- 
reaching  statistical  research)  we  should  first  see  under  what 
conditions  a  standard  could  be  found.  It  is  obvious  that  a 
standard  by  which  so  much  is  to  be  judged  should  not  be 
established  except  on  the  clearest  evidence  and  under  condi- 
tions which  leave  no  room  for  doubt  as  to  the  forces  at  work 
in  producing  the  observed  result. 

[218] 


Growth  of  the  French  Canadian  Race.         7 

The  race  whose  rate  of  increase  is  to  be  taken  as  standard 
should  also  live  under  conditions  which  make  it  an  easy 
matter  to  ascertain  the  true  rate  of  increase.  The^e,  probably, 
would  best  be  found  in  an  isolated  community,  with  little  or 
no  communication  with  the  outer  world  or  with  its  immedi- 
ate neighbors,  inhabiting  a  new  country  where  the  condi- 
tions of  life  are  favorable  for  healthy  and  vigorous  existence, 
and  in  which  neither  the  nature  of  the  soil  or  climate,  nor 
the  nature  of  the  occupations  of  the  inhabitants  renders  disease 
especially  frequent.     Above  all,  the  race,  by  customs  and 
traditions,  and  in  every  other  possible  way,  should  be  little 
apt  to  assimilate  surrounding  or  immigrating  peoples  or  to 
amalgamate  and  lose  its  identity  in  that  of  the  peoples  among 
whom  its  lot  may  be  cast.      In  short,  the  circumstances  of 
the  community  must  be  such  that  v;e  can  clearly  trace  its 
growth  and  be  reasonably  certain  that  no  branch  of  the  race 
has  escaped  observation,  and  that  the  increase  of  no  other 
race  or  community  has  gone  to  augment  the  results.     In 
other  words  the  circumstances  must  be  such  that  we  can  dis- 
cover the  truth,  the  whole  truth,  and  nothing  that  is  not  true. 
It  is  not  an  easy  matter  to  find  a  nation  or  race  which 
fully  realizes  all  these  conditions.    The  movements  of  popula- 
tion during  the  present  century  render  it  almost  impossible 
to  discover  the  true  rate  of  increase.     European  countries 
have  lost,  actually  and  potentially,  by  emigration.    America 
and  new  countries  have  gained  so  much  by  immigration, 
potentially  as  well   as  actually,   that   no  accurate  deduc- 
tion can  be  made  from  the  rates  of  increase  there  observed. 
Before  the  present  century  the  populations  of  Europe  were  less 
mobile  than  they  have  since  become,  but  accurate  statistics 
are  not  available.      Wherever   we  turn  the  attainment  of 
anything  like  iccuracy  seems  impossible,  and  any  standard 
of  increase  set   up  would  retain  the  appearance  of  being 
arbitrary.      Fortunately,  however,  there  is  one  race  which 
presents  all  the  conditions  necessary  for  accurate  observation. 
The  French  population  of  Canada  is  an  isolated,  homogeneous 

[219] 


8  Annai^  of  the  American  Academy. 

body  of  which  we  cao  observe  the  true  increase;  the  whole 
increase,  and  nothing  but  the  true  increase,  and  from  this 
source  it  is  possible  to  set  up  a  standard  which  shall  not 
be  arbitrary  even  in  appearance. 

To  begin  with,  we  are  in  possession  of  accurate  statistical 
data  covering  two  centuries  and  a  half.  Not  only  have 
regular  enumerations  of  the  people  been  taken  since  the  coun- 
try passed  into  the  possession  of  England,  there  were 
sixteen  enumerations  before  that  event.  Over  and  above  these 
census  returns,  which  might  partake  of  the  inaccuracy  of  all 
early  census  returns,  we  have  at  our  disposal  accurate 
vital  statistics  covering  the  whole  period  during  which  there 
have  been  French  settlers  on  this  continent.  The  parish 
registers  kept  by  the  priests,  during  nearly  three  centuries, 
give  us  a  complete  survey  of  the  progress  of  the  population. 
These  registers  were  rendered  accessible  by  publication  in 
one  of  the  volumes  of  the  First  Census  of  the  Dominion 
of  Canada  in  1871  and  the  results  may  be,  and  have  been, 
used  not  merely  to  verify  but  also  to  supplement  the  sta4:is- 
tics  gathered  by  the  government  agents.  The  registers 
contain  an  impartial  account  of  births  and  marriages  and 
deaths  which  are  open  to  no  suspicion  of  political  inter- 
ference. Thus,  for  the  growth  of  the  population,  we  have  not 
the  random  guesses,  more  or  less  well  informed,  made  by 
observers,  more  or  less  competent  and  more  or  less  prejudiced, 
but  a  series  of  tables  on  whose  accuracy  we  can  depend; 
for  their  compilation  was  part  of  a  religious  function  and 
not  the  work  of  a  possibly  perfunctory  government  depart- 
ment. In  the  case  of  the  French  Canadian  population  the 
first  and  most  essential  condition  is  realized.  The  rate  of 
increase  which  may  be  established  is  based  on  reliable  sta- 
tistics and  not  on  mere  estimates;  and  these  statistics  cover  a 
long  period,  long  enough  at  any  rate  to  eliminate  accidental 
variations  of  time. 

A  second  point  of  almost  equal  importance  for  establishing 
a  standard  rate  of  increase  is  that  during  nearly  a  century 

[220] 


Growth  op  the  French  Canadian  Rack.    9 

I  and  a  half,  ever  since  1759,  when  New  France  passed 
on  the  Plains  of  Abraham  into  the  possession  of  the  English, 
the  French  Canadian  has  lived  in  isolation;  and  the  conse- 
quence is,  that  whatever  rate  of  increase  we  discover,  will  be 
a  legitimate  rate,  not  raised  by  immigration  from  abroad  nor 
interfered  with  in  other  ways  which  might  render  the  real 
increase  uncertain.  When  the  French  Canadian  became  a 
subject  of  the  British  crown,  he  retained  only  a  sentimental 
connection  with  the  mother  France  across  the  seas.  His 
language,  his  laws,  his  customs,  and  his  religion  were  guar- 
anteed to  him  forever,  and  a  great  deal  of  that  vexatious 
regulation  and  interference  which  had  hindered  the  develop- 
ment of  the  colony  (and  was  indeed  the  reason  why  France 
failed  as  a  colonial  power)  was  removed.  The  French 
Canadian  remained  free  to  develop,  and  we  shall  take  the 
first  census  after  1759  as  the  starting  point  of  our  calculation. 

/Immigration  from  France  which,  prior  to  1760,  must  pre- 
vent the  true  and  legitimate  rate  of  increase  from  being 
readily  discernible,  ceased,  and  during  a  century  and  a 
half  has  remained  practically  a  negligable  quantity.  It 
is  true  that  there  was  a  large  emigration  from  Acadia  to 
New  France  in  consequence  of  English  oppression;  but  it  is 
very  probable  that  the  greater  part  took  place  before  1765 
(our  starting  point).  The  French  population  of  Acadia  in 
1765  slightly  exceeded  10,000,  and  in  1771  still  amounted 
(by  estimate)  to  8462.  The  decrease  in  these  six  years 
was  probably  due  more  to  the  enormous  mortality  among 
the  population  on  the  North  Shore  than  to  emigration.  Of 
late  years  a  strong  effort  has  been  made  by  some  of  the 
leaders  of  the  French  Canadians  to  strengthen  the  bonds 
of  sentiment  which  still  unite  them  to  France;  and  Quebec 
provincial  loans  have  been  negotiated  m  Paris,  at  an  extrava- 
gant rate,  rather  than  in  London.  The  object  has  of  course 
been  to  divert  to  Canada  some  portion  of  the  scant  stream 
of  emigrants  from  France,  and  thus  to  reinforce  French 
Canadian  influence  in  Canada,    An  especial  effort  was  made 

[221] 


lO 


Annates  op  the  American  Academy. 


in  the  early  seventies  to  attract  the  inhabitants  of  Alsace  and 
Lorraine  who  had  expatriated  themselves  rather  than  become 
German  citizens;  but  so  far  as  can  be  seen,  statistically, 
neither  this  special  effort  nor  any  other  has  had  any  marked 
effect.  The  number  of  French  immigrants  is  still  insig- 
nificant, and  not  appreciably  greater  than  the  number  of 
German  and  other  continental  immigrants  into  the  Province 
of  Quebec.  The  following  table  shows  the  number  of  French 
and  German  born  inhabitants  of  the  provinces  of  Quebec 
and  Ontario  since  1851: 

Proportion  per  1000  owning  as  Birth  Place. 


'> 


France. 

Germany. 

Census  Ykar. 

Ontario. 

Quebec. 

Ontario. 

Quebec. 

1851 

I.O 

0.4 

10.4 

0.2 

1861 

1.7 

0.8 

16.4 

0.6 

1871 

1.0 

0.6 

14.0 

0.7 

1881 

0.8 

16 

I2.I 

0.8 

1891 

0.5 

1-5 

134 

6.5 

*  JL  "  1^^  It  is  evident  from  this  table  that  the  rate  of  increase  in 
(V'  ^^  iT^rench  Canada  has  been  augmented  but  little  by  immigration 
V  from  France,  and  this  is  the  only  source  from  which  error 
might  come.  The  total  immigration  is  in  itself  small,  and 
there  is  no  danger  of  confounding,  at  least  from  1 85 1 ,  any 
other  part  of  it  with  the  natural  increase  of  the  French  Cana- 
dian people.  The  proportion  of  immigrants  from  France  is 
certainly  not  more  than  sufficient  to  counterbalance  the 
inevitable  leakage  which  cannot  be  traced.  Every  nation 
loses  more  or  less  by  emigration  in  driblets  so  small  that  no 
statistical  account  of  it  can  be  made.  This  leakage  is  les^ 
perhaps  in  the  case  of  the  French  Canadians  than  in  any 
other  nation,  but  the  increment  of  population  by  immigration 
from  France  is  no  more  than  sufficient  to  make  up  for  the 
loss. 

[222] 


Growth  o^  the  French  Canadian  Race.        ii 

The  second  condition  of  a  reliable  standard  is  therefore 
present.  Malthus  took  the  increase  of  the  New  England 
States  as  his  standard  and  his  standard  is  unreliable  because 
of  the  steady  stream  of  immigration  which  was  even  then 
flowing  in,  the  increase  due  to  immigration  being  then  rela- 
tively the  more  important  that  the  population  was  small. 
It  happens  that  the  standard  he  set  up  is  accurate  or 
approximately  accurate,  but  it  only  happens  so.  In  the  case 
of  the  French  Canadians  we  may  take  the  increase  from 
1765,  which  we  take  as  our  starting  point,  to  1890-91,  from 
69,810  to  1,804,795,  as  a  natural  increase. 

While  it  is  necessary  that  the  natural  rate  of  increase 
should  not  be  augmented  by  immigration  it  is  equally  im- 
portant that  no  part  of  the  natural  rate  should  be  omitted  on 
account  of  emigration.  If  the  rate  of  increase  in  the  United 
States,  during  last  century  and  this,  may  not  be  taken  as  a 
standard  on  account  of  immigration,  still  less  can  the  census 
reports  of  England  during  present  century  afford  any  basis  for 
establishing  a  true  vStandard.  E^'en  if  we  add  to  the  thirty- 
eight  millions  of  the  present  population  of  the  United 
Kingdom,  the  thirteen  or  fourteen  millions  who  have  left 
the  country  since  18 15,  we  have  not  obtained  a  final  result. 
We  should  still  have  to  add  the  potential  increase  of  these 
thirteen  or  fourteen  millions.  Even  should  we  assume  that 
these  would  have  iucreaseJl  at  the  same  rate  as  those  who 
have  remained,  we  have  still  only  a  conjectural  rate  of 
increase,  based  on  the  unverifiable,  and  probably  false 
assumption,  that  the  emigration  of  these  millions  made  no 
essential  difference  in  the  rate  of  increase  at  home. 

The  people  whose  rate  of  increase  may  be  accepted  as  a 
standard  must  not  have  lost  to  any  great  extent  by  emigration. 
We  want  the  whole  increase  and  not  a  part  of  it.  At  first 
sight  it  appears  that  the  French  Canadian  people  do  not 
realize  this  third  important  condition.  By  means  of  the 
census  reports  issued  by  the  Dominion  Government,  we  can 
trace  the  decreasing   movements  of  the  French  Canadian 

[223] 


12  Annai3  of  the  American  Academy. 

population  withiu  Canada.  Whether  they  go  to  British 
Columbia  or  the  Northwest,  to  Manitoba  or  to  the  Maritime 
Provinces,  they  are  still  within  reach  of  the  census  enume- 
rator and  the  total  increase  in  Canada  can  be  ascertained 
without  much  trouble.  But  there  has  been,  over  and  above 
these  movements  within  the  Dominion,  an  enormous  emigra- 
tion into  the  Qnited  States,  part  of  a  general  movement  so 
great  as  to  be  called  by  the  Canadians  an  Exodus.  It  is  not 
enough  for  uf,  to  know  that  the  French  Canadian  in  the  land  of 
his  adoption  retains  the  language,  the  religion,  the  customs, 
the  individuality  of  his  race;  it  is  not  enough  even  to  know, 
that  in  his  new  enviroment  he  remains  an  isolated,  unassimi- 
lated  unit,  that  he  does  not  intermarry  with  the  old  inhabit- 
ants or  with  other  newcomers;  that,  in  short,  the  increase  is 
still  a  pure  and  natural  increase,  if,  after  all,  we  cannot  esti- 
mate accurately  in  what  numbers  he  has  left  his  ancestral 
home.  General  estimates  in  round  numbers  are  of  little  value 
for  statistical  purposes.  Till  recently  we  had  to  be  content 
with  general  estimates.  The  census  reports  of  the  United 
Staf^'-'j  prior  to  1890  made  no  distinction  between  English 
and  French  Canadians.  We  knew  that  there  were  so  many 
hundreds  of  thousands  of  Canadians  in  the  United  States, 
but  we  did  not  know  the  proportions  of  the  two  nationalities. 
The  instructions  issued  to  the  United  States  census  enum- 
erators in  1 890  bade  them  distinguish  between  French  and 
English  Canadians  and  by  the  publication  of  two  Census 
Bulletins,  one.  No.  357  (issued  February  16,  1893),  dealing 
with  ' '  Foreign  born  population  distributed  according  to 
country  of  birth  1 850-1 890  ;  "  the  other.  Extra  Census 
Bulletin  No.  97  (issued  November  i,  1894),  dealing  with 
' '  Statistics  of  Foreign  parentage, ' '  the  information  we 
require  for  the  purposes  of  this  essay  has  been  made  acces- 
sible. From  these  bulletins  the  lacincB  in  our  statistics 
have  been  filled  up  and  the  necessary  data  supplied  for 
estimating  the  rate  of  increase  of  the  French  Canadian 
people  whether  resident  in  Canada  or  in  the  United  States. 

[224] 


Growth  of  ths  French  Canadian  Rack.   13 

We  learn  not  merely  how  many  French  Canadians  are 
resident  in  the  United  States  but  also  the  number  of  their 
increase  of  the  first  generation.  The  fact  to  which  fre- 
quent and  emphatic  attention  is  called  in  these  bulletins 
that  the  Frerch  Canadian  does  not  intermarry  either  with 
the  native  born  citizens  of  the  United  States  or  with  foreign 
immigrants  renders  it  possible  to  ascertain  with  exactitude 
the  number  of  his  increase.  In  comment  on  a  table,  p.  20, 
Extra  Census  Bulletin  No.  97,  Dr.  Carroll  D.  Wright  says, 
"  It  is  at  once  apparent  from  these  percentages  that  native 
born  women  have  married  most  freely  with  those  nationalities 
which  were  among  the  earliest  contributors  to  our  foreign 
born  element,  and  for  this  reason  it  is  impossible  to  determine 
accurately  the  proportion  of  these  women  who  are  themselves 
native  bom  but  of  foreign  extraction. 

' '  The  percentage  of  persons  with  French  Canadian  fathers 
and  native  mothers  makes  this  assumption  all  the  more 
plausible,  for  the  reason  that  this  class  is  not  disposed  to 
marry  much,  if  at  all,  outside  of  its  own  people." 

The  figures  referred  to,  as  extracted  from  the  table  are: 

Total  white  persons  having  French  Canadian  fathers, 
497,650. 

Total  having  mothers  bom  in  French  Canada,  442,041; 
per  cent,  88.83. 

Mothers  born  in  other  foreign  countries,  11,144;  per 
cent,  2,24. 

Mothers  native,  44.465;  per  cent  8.93. 

Further  on  in  the  same  bulletin,  it  is  said:  "  An  attempt 
has  been  made  to  determine  for  the  first  time  the  approximate 
number  of  persons  in  this  country  who  were  of  French 
Canadian  extraction  (p.  21)  .  .  .  "It  appears  that  the 
whole  number  of  the  French  Canadian  element  in  this 
country  in  1890  .  .  .  ¥  as  537,298,  while  of  the  English 
Canadian  (including  Newfoundland)  was  1,163,645.  There 
\  is  an  unavoidable  duplication  in  this  table  of  6930  white 
persons  having  both  parents  born  in  Canada,  one  parent 

[225] 


14  Annai^  of  the  American  Academy. 

being  of  English  extraction,  the  other  parent  being  of 
French  extraction.  This  duplication  is  small,  however, 
compared    with    the    whole    number    of    each    element." 

(p.  24.) 

We  are  thus  able  to  trace  with  accuracy  the  growth  of  the 
population.      We  include  none  who  have  no  right  to  be 
included,  and  what  is  equally  important,  we  practically  omit 
whom  we  should  inclu  de.     The  only  defect  in  the  information 
derived  from  these  bulletins  is  that  no  distinction  is  made  be- 
tween Canadian  French  and  Acadian  French.  From  the  point 
of  view  of  the  United  States  statistician  there  is  no  reason  why 
this  distinction  should  be  made,  and,  were  it  not  that  the  early 
estimates  of  the  Acadians  are  conjectural,  there  would  be  no 
reason  for  drawing  the  distinction  in  this  examination.    The 
estimates  of  the  number  of  Acadians  in  1771  remaining  in 
what  are  now  the  Maritime  Provinces,  after  the  deportations, 
emigrations  and  returns  had  ceased,  are  calculated  from  the 
returns  of  the  census  of  187 1  on  the  supposition  of  a  "  natural 
increase  at  the  rule  of  2.5  per  annum,  the  normal  rate  of  the 
Acadians  when  left  to  themselves"  (Census  Report,  1871, 
Vol.  IV,  Introd.,  p.  xxviii),  which  means  that  the  Acadians 
double  every  thirty  years.     We  shall  see  that  this  is  rather 
less  than  the  rate  of  increase  among  the  French  Canadians, 
but  it  would  obviously  be  unsatisfactory  to  base  any  calcula- 
tion of  the  rate  of  increase  on  an  estimate  based  on  an 
assumed  rate  of  increase.     "It  was  apparently  only  about 
1 771  that  the  Acadians  saw  the  cessation  of  the  emigration 
which  had  diminished  their  population,  and  that  having 
again  attained  to  easy  circumstances,  they  began  to  increase 
at  the  rate  of  2.5  per  annum.     It  is  at  this  rate,  taking  the 
census  of  1871  for  a  basis,  that  the  probable  number  of  the 
Acadian  population  in  each  centre  has  been  fixed.     .     .     . 
in  fact,  the  number  of  8442,  in  the  ratio  of  increase  indicated 
during  the  course  of  a  century,  accounts  for  the  Acadian 
population  of  99,740  souls  (the  Acadian  population  of  Prince 
Edward  Island  and  the  State  of  Maine  included)  in  1871. 

[226] 


Growth  of  the  French  Canadian  Race.       15 

Exchanges  of  settlers  from  Acadia  to  Canada  and  vice  versa, 
have  taken  place  in  ihe  course  of  the  century,  but  as  these 
exchanges  almost  balance  each  other,  they  have  not  affected 
the  general  result"  (Ibid,  p.  xxxiv).* 

Except  for  the  petitio principii  involved  by  including  them, 
there  would  have  been  no  reason  for  excluding  them  from 
our  calculation.  As  the  matter  stands,  however,  it  is  better 
to  make  deduction  from  the  total  number  of  French  Can- 
adians returned  in  the  census  of  1891  of  the  number  of 
French  Acadians  in  the  Provinces  of  Nova  Scotia,  New 
Brunswick  and  Prince  Edward  Island.  According  to  Table 
III,  Vol.  I,  Canadian  Census,  1891,  there  were  in 

Nova  Scotia, ".    29,838  French 

New  Brunswick, 61,767 

Prince  Edward  Island 11,847 


( < 


103,452 
I,ess  number  of  Quebec  French  in 

Maritime  Provinces, 3>500 

Total  Acadians,      ....  100,000 

In  1 89 1  the  census  returns  show  a  total  of  the  French 
speaking  population  of  Canada,  1,404,974;  so  that  after 
deduction  of  the  number  of  Acadians,  we  find  the  total 
French  Canadian  population  resident  in  Canada,  1,304,974. 
The  United  States  Bulletins,  as  mentioned  above,  do  not 
make  any  distinction  between  French  Canadian  and  French 
Acadian,  but  they  afford  the  means  of  estimating  approxi- 
mately how  many  Acadians  are  included  in  the  total  of 
537, 298  French  Canadians  resident  in  the  United  States.  We 
may  safely  assume  that  at  least  as  large  a  proportion  of 
Acadians  as  of  French  Canadians  have  joined  the  Exodus- 

♦  By  calculation  based  on  Table  V,  Census  Report,  1891,  it  appears  that  there  is  a 
surplus  of  something  like  3500  Canadian  French  resident  in  the  Maritime  Prov- 
inces (subtraction  ol  Acadians  in  Quebec  being  made);  and  this  number  is  accord- 
ingly included  in  the  total  of  French  Canadians  resident  in  Canada. 

[227] 


i6  Annals  of  thb  American  Academy. 

(popular  estimate  in  New  Bnins^vick  is  tLat  the  proportion  is 
larger).  The  French  Canadians  in  the  United  States  are  in 
rather  more  than  the  proportion  jf  i  to  3  of  the  total  French 
population  of  Canada;  so  that  we  are  safe  in  assuming  that 
more  than  30  per  cent  of  the  Acadians  are  to  be  found  in 
the  United  States — that  is  more  than  30,000.  If,  then,  we 
reduce  the  number  of  French  Canadians  returned  in  the 
United  States  Census  from  537,298  to  500,000,  we  are  prob- 
ably within  the  mark. 

The  third  condition  for  the  establishing  of  the  standard 
that  no  part  of  the  natural  increase  should  be  omitted  from 
the  calculation  is  accordingly  realized  in  the  case  of  the 
French  Canadians.  The  total  increase  of  the  people  from 
1765  to  1890-91  is  ascertainable  and  the  resulting  rate  is 
therefore  not  based  on  conjecture. 

It  is  further  important  for  the  establishing  of  a  standard 
rate  of  increase  that  the  conditions  of  life  and  labor  among 
the  people  whose  increase  is  taken  as  standard,  should  be  at 
least  as  favorable  as  in  any  other  land;  and  there  can  be  no 
doubt  that  this  is  true  in  the  case  of  the  French  Canadian. 
The  quelques  arpents  du  neige  as  Voltaire  contemptuously 
designated  New  France  have  during  the  century  and  a  half 
been  visited  neither  by  war  nor  by  pestilence  (for  we  need  not 
over-estimate  the  skirmishes  of  18 12).  There  has  been  se- 
curity of  life  and  property,  and  freedom  of  development;  there 
has  been  abundance  of  good  land  unappropriated;  and,  with 
inexhaustible  fisheries  and  unexhausted  forests,  with  devel- 
oping industry  at  home  and  unrestricted  freedom  of  migra- 
tion, there  never  has  been  any  danger  of  population  treading 
on  the  limits  of  subsistence.  The  climate,  though  severe  in 
winter,  is,  at  least,  as  favorable  to  healthy  human  existence 
as  any  other  that  could  be  named.  So  that  taken  all  in  all 
the  general  conditions  are  perfectly  normal. 

It  may,  however,  be  objected  that  all  the  conditions  are 
not  normal,  and  that  the  excessive  birth-rate  among  the 
French  Canadians  prevents  us  from  taking  their  rate  of 

[228] 


Growth  of  the  French  Canadian  Race.   17 

increase  as  a  standard.  Mai  thus  assumed,  and  as  we  said, 
probably  without  warrant,  that  there  is  a  natural  "  prolifick- 
ness,"  which  is  the  same  for  all  nations,  and  that  any  di\er- 
gence  from  this  standard  must  be  accounted  for  by  means  of 
the  checks  on  population.  But  if  it  be  true  that  the  birth- 
rate of  the  French  Canadian  is  four  or  five  times  as  high  as 
the  birth-rate  of  the  English  Canadian  or  of  any  other  civilized 
race,  then  a  good  deal  of  the  pains  which  Malthus  takes  to 
show  how  the  operation  of  the  checks  accounts  for  the  differ- 
ent rates  of  increase  is  labor  thrown  away.  However  valid 
the  objection  may  be  against  Malthus'  assumption,  or 
perhaps  more  strictly  against  his  manner  of  stating  the 
assumption,  it  need  not  prevent  us  from  using  the  French 
Canadian  rate  of  increase  as  a  standard. 

There  can  be  no  doubt  of  the  very  general  opinion 
in  Canada  and  elsewhere  that  the  French  Canadians  are 
increasing  out  of  all  proportion  to  the  rest.  Their  excessive 
"  prolifickness "  is  often  the  subject  of  remark,  and  the 
statement  is  met  with  profound  scepticism  that  the  size  of  the 
average  family  in  Quebec  is  only  a  fraction  larger  than  the 
average  family  in  Ontario,  or  than  the  average  family  taking 
Canada  as  a  whole,  and  is  smaller  by  as  large  a  fraction  than 
the  average  family  in  Prince  Edward  Island.  What  about 
the  tradition  among  the  French  Canadians,  it  is  asked,  that 
the  twentieth  or  the  twenty-fourth  child  in  a  family  belongs 
to  the  parish  priest,  and  is  brought  up  and  educated  for  the 
church?  What  about  the  law  passed  by  the  late  Count 
Mercier  in  Quebec,  providing  that  ' '  every  father  or  mother 
of  a  family,  born  or  naturalized  and  domiciled  in  this  Pro- 
vince, who  has  twelve  children  living,  bom  in  Ir^wf  ul  wedlock, 
is  entitled  to  one  hundred  acres  of  public  lands  selected  by 
him"  (C.  20,  53  Vict.)- an  enactment  which,  but  for  the 
provision  in  favor  of  lawful  wedlock,  may  be  compared  with 
a  good  deal  of  the  legislation  and  practice  connected  with 
the  relief  of  the  poor  at  the  end  of  last  century  in  England  ? 
Yet  in  spite  of  prevalent  opinion  and  of  inferences  naturally 

[229] 


i8 


AnnaIvS  of  the  American  Academy. 


enough  drawn  from  such  legislation,    the  facts  are   quite 
otherwise,  as  the  following  table  must  conclusively  show: 

Average  Size  of  Family. 


Province. 


Upper  Canada,  after  1871  Ontario 
Lower  Canada,  or  Quebec    .... 

Nova  Scotia 

New  Brunswick 

Prince  Edward  Island 

Manitoba 

Northwest  Territories 

British  Columbia 

All  Canada 


1851. 


6.2 
6.2 
6.1 
6.1 


6.2 


1861. 


6.4 
6.0 
6.0 
6.3 


6.2 


1871. 


5.5 
5.6 

5.7 
5.8 


5.6 


18S1. 


5-2 
5-3 
5-5 
5.6 
6.0 
4.6 
4.8 
4-7 
5-3 


1891. 


5-1 
5-5 
5-4 
5-5 
5-8 
4.8 
4.6 

4-7 
5.2 


In  one  period  alone  has  the  average  in  Quebec  been 
higher  than  the  Canadian  average,  and  then  the  Canadian 
average  was  low  owing  to  the  disturbance  introduced  by  the 
statistics  of  the  new  western  provinces,  where  the  average  is 
abnormally  low.  In  1 891,  of  all  the  Provinces  the  average 
rises  in  Quebec  alone,  but  the  rise  is  not  sufficient  to  be 
more  than  a  temporary  interruption  of  a  steady  fall.  The 
average  in  New  Brunswick  was  equally  large,  and  there 
only  25  per  cent  of  the  population  are  French  ;  in  Prince 
Edward  Island,  the  average  (5.8)  is  higher,  and  there  only 
18  per  cent  of  the  population  are  French  ;  in  Nova  Scotia, 
the  only  other  Province  whose  average  exceeds  the  Do- 
minion average,  less  than  7  per  cent  are  French,  while  in 
Quebec  four-fifths,  or  86  per  cent,  of  the  population  are 
French. 

This  result,  which  seems  to  confound  all  the  popular 
notions  -garding  the  extraordinary  families  common  in 
French  panada,  is  really  quite  compatible  with  the  received 
opinion.  The  number  of  children  born  into  a  family  is  so 
very  much  in  excess  of  the  number  in  other  parts  of  Canada, 
and  in  other  countries,  that  the  assumption  made  by  Mai  thus 

[230] 


Growth  op  the  French  Canadian  Race.       19 

of  a  natural  ' '  prolifickness ' '  which  is  approximately  the 
same  the  world  over,  becomes  quite  untenable.  Had  Malthus 
maintained  that  in  the  absence  of  vice  and  misery  there  is  a 
natural  average  of  size  of  family,  which  is  the  same  the 
world  over,  much  more  might  have  been  said  for  the  assump- 
tion. It  does  not  appear  that  the  extraordinary  infant  mor- 
tality (which  is  the  explanation  of  the  paradox)  can  be 
attributed  to  either  vice  or  misery,  the  checks  on  which 
Malthus  at  first  lays  so  much  stress,  and  of  course  it  cannot, 
in  a  Catholic  country,  be  due  to  the  prudential  check  as 
interpreted  by  the  neo-Malthusian.  The  causes  are  various, 
but  neither  scarcity  of  food  nor  general  misery  can  be 
included  among  them.  The  French  Canadian  is  not  a  weak- 
ling, and  the  women  are  not  such  as  give  birth  to  sickly 
children.  One  prevalent  cause,  infantile  diarrhoea,  is  due 
rather  to  excess  of  food,  improper  food,'  and  lack  of  care 
about  the  child's  diet,  than  to  poverty  and  want.  The 
following  table  is  extracted  from  the  Summary  of  the 
Census,  1881,  Ages  of  the  People,  Table  F,  Vol.  IV, 
p.  22,  et  seq.: 

Number  Per  Cent  Living  at  Each  Age. 


"S 

i 

I 

•1 

cd 

-*' 

a 

Age. 

H 

^  cd 

CI  M 

s 
2 

pq 

■i 

d 

•n 

t 

1 

s 

5 

2 

% 

iS 

•s 

s 

n 

0 

'u 

n 

3 

PM 

;zi 

^ 

0 

d 

^ 

% 

n 

0     .    . 

2.73 

2.75 

2.52 

2.62 

329 

2.89 

0.46 

1.75 

2.80 

I      .    . 

2.29 

2..^8 

2.24 

2.27 

2.35 

2.63 

0.50 

1.54 

2.28 

5     •    • 

2.71 

2.65 

2.65 

2.73 

2.92 

2.49 

0.64 

2.12 

2.75 

21     .    . 

1.99 

1.92 

1.89 

2.09 

1.92 

2.36 

0.37 

1. 21 

1.98 

The  causes  of  such  a  heavy  infant  mortality  as  appears 
from  the  above  table  cannot  be  far  to  seek,  but  perhaps  an 
extract  from  a  letter  received  from   Dr.   E.  Persillier  La 

[231] 


30  Annals  of  the  American  Academy. 

Chapelle,  President  of  the  Conseil  d'Hygi^ne  of  the  Province 
of  Quebec,  in  answer  to  inquiries,  may  sufl&ce: 

.  .  .  .  "  I  do  not  believe  it  would  be  correct  to  ascribe 
to  any  single  cause  the  phenomenon  you  inquire  about,  and 
I  am  convinced  it  is  the  result  of  several  factors.  For  one 
the  first  cause  of  the  heavy  infant  mortality  among  the 
French  Canadians  is  their  very  heavy  natality,  each  family 
being  composed  of  an  average  of  twelve  children,  and 
instances  of  families  of  fifteen,  eighteen  and  even  twenty- 
four  children  being  not  uncommon. 

"The  superabundance  of  children  renders,  I  think,  par- 
ents less  careful  about  them,  and  I  have  no  doubt  that  for 
one  instance,  the  want  of  care  about  the  alimentary  diet  is 
an  important  cause  of  their  premature  death,  and  may 
explain  the  abnormal  proportion  of  deaths  from  diarrhoea 
during  the  summer  months;  and  this,  not  on  account  of  poor 
or  insufiicient  food,  but  on  account  of  babies  being  allowed 
to  drink  and  even  eat  anything  they  want  and  at  any  time, 
just  the  same  as  grown-up  persons.     .     .     . 

"  In  a  word,  I  think  that  want  of  proper  care  in  every 
way  is  the  principal  cause  of  this  heavy  infantile  mortality, 
and  I  am  sure  it  is  not  due  to  any  constitutional  or  radical 
debility." 

Whether  or  not  we  must  regard  this  heavy  infantile  mor- 
tality among  the  French  Canadians  as  arising  from  the 
operation  of  any  one  of  Malthus'  checks  on  the  principle  of 
population  and  whether,  in  the  event,  we  should  require  to 
class  lack  of  parental  care  and  watchfulness  as  arising  from 
vice  or  from  misery,  is  really  beside  our  purpose.  What  we 
have  established  is  that  the  French  Canadian  race  increases 
at  no  abnormal  rate,  for  after  the  first  year  the  proportion 
living  at  any  given  age  varies  little  from  the  proportion  among 
other  Canadians. 

These,  then,  are  the  conditions  and  the  measure  in  which 
the  French  Canadian  people  meet  them.  No  other  race 
seems  to  offer  the  same  facilities  for  calculating  the  standard 

[232] 


Growth  of  thk  French  Canadian  Rack.       21 

rate  of  increase;  and  the  resulting  standard  may  be  accepted 
with  confidence.  Malthus  hastily  assumed  the  standard  of 
increase  of  3.19  per  annum,  and  a  good  deal  of  the  dis- 
cussion has  arisen  because  his  critics  had  no  confidence  that 
it  was  a  true  standard.  It  was  hastily  assumed  and  was 
based  on  conjectural  estimates  which  might  be  trustworthy 
and  might  not;  it  was  the  casual  increase  of  particular  and 
restricted  districts  without  allowance  made  for  temporary 
and  disturbing  causes.  That  the  rate  he  assumed  was  so  near 
the  true  natural  rate  as  it  was,  was  probably  due  as  much  to 
"  good  luck  as  to  good  management,"  but  at  any  rate  it  was 
near  the  true  rate,  and  the  "Principles  of  Population,"  with 
its  discussion  of  the  operation  of  the  checks  on  the  principle, 
remains  of  permanent  value. 

We  have  taken  the  Census  of  1765  as  our  starting  point. 
Emigration  had  practically  ceased  by  this  date;  peace  and 
freedom  of  development  were  secured  to  the  race  by  treaty. 
From  1765  to  1890-91  we  have  125  years  of  uninterrupted 
growth — a  peiiod  long  enough  to  afford  a  permanent  standard 
of  the  productive  capabilities  of  the  race,  and  during  the  greator 
part  of  the  period  we  have  accurate  statistics  of  population. 
A  certain  degree  of  uncertainty  enters  into  the  figures  given 
from  1784  to  1844.  The  Census  of  1784  was  taken  before 
the  influx  of  the  Loyalists  into  the  Eastern  townships  of 
what  is  now  the  Province  of  Quebec,  but  is  said  to  include 
some  fifteen  thousand  British  settlers.  From  1784  onward 
the  total  given  without  distinctions  includes  an  increasing 
number  of  British  settlers,  and  it  is  only  possible  by  esti- 
mating the  proportion  of  Irish  among  the  Catholics  of  Quebec 
at  a  diminishing  rate  the  further  back  we  go  from  1844. 
From  1844  onward  discrimination  is  made  between  English 
and  French  Canadians.  The  intermediate  stages  are  not  of 
much  importance  because  the  standard  depends  on  the  total 
increase  from  1765  to  1890-91.  From  1851  the  number  of 
emigrants  is  included,  which  accounts  for  the  sudden  increase 
between  1844  and  1851 .    The  number  of  emigrants  set  down 

[233] 


22  Annaw  op  thb  American  Academy. 

in  the  table  for  the  four  decade  years,  1851,  1861,  1871,  1881, 
has  been  obtained  by  calculation.    The  United  States  Census 
Bulletins  give  only  the  total  Canadian  immigration  into  the 
United  States  for  these  periods;  it  is  only  for  189 1  that  we 
can  definitely  set  down  the  number  of  French  Canadians, 
However,  it  appears  that  in  189 1  the  French  Canadians  were 
to  the  English  Canadians  in  the  proportion  of  5  to  1 1 ;  and  the 
totals  given  in  Census  Bulletin  357  are  of  the  total  Canadian 
population  at  the  respective  censuses  of  1850,  i860,   1870, 
1880.    If,  then,  we  take  for  these  the  same  or  a  less  proportion 
of  the  total  Canadian  population  in  the  United  States,  we 
shall  reach  subvStantial  accuracy  for  each  decennial  period. 
For  1850  the  proportion  is  4:11;  for  1880,  5:11;  for  i860 
and  1870,  midway  between.     It  is  necessary  to  reduce  the 
proportion  in  this  way  because  the  French  Canadian  joined 
the  Exodus,  in  large  numbers,  later  than  the  English  Can- 
adians, as  one  would  naturally  expect.     By  the  calculation 
for  these  3'ears  we  get  rid  of  the  difficulty  which  it  is  said 
arises  when  we  compare  the  Canadian  Census  of  1881  made 
on  the  de  jure  plan  with  the  census  of  1891  which  was  made 
on  the  de  facto.    Mr.  Johnson,  the  statistician  of  the  Canadian 
Board  of  Agriculture,  estimates   (Toronto  Empire  Mail, 
February  18,  1895),  that  the  change  of  system  involved  a 
difference  of  four  per  cent.      If  that  were  so,  we  should 
require  to  deduct  some  forty  thousand  from  1881  in  order  to 
obtain  a  true  statement  of  the  total  French  Canadian  popu- 
lation for  that  year.     However,  absolute  accuracy  is  not 
necessary  at  any  intermediate  stages,  provided  that  at  the 
starting  point  and  at  the  end  of  the  period  there  is  no  doubt. 
The  census  of  1765  is  indubitably  accurate,  and  the  de  facto 
system  of  the  Canadian  Census  of  1891  enables  us  to  count 
in  the  total  return  made  by  .he  United  States  Census  Bul- 
letins without  any  danger  of  counting  any  considerable 
section  of  the  French  Canadian  twice  over. 


[234] 


Growth  op  the  French  Canadian  Race.       23 


Table  of  French  Canadia7i  Population,  1^65-1891. 


Cemsds 
Year. 

French  in 
Canada. 

Rate  of 
Increase. 

French  in 
United  States. 

Total. 

Rate  of  Increase 

per  cent  per 

decade. 

1765  • 
1784. 
1805  . 

69,810 

98,012 

215,000 

310,000 

538,213 

695,947 

880,902 

1,005,200 

1,186,008 

1,304,745 

69,810 

98,012 

215,000 

3lo,cx« 

538.213 

749,696 

983,162 

1,207,071 

1,511.997 
1,804,795 

1844. 
185 1 . 
1861 . 
1871 . 
188 1 . 
1891 . 

•    •    t    • 

(1851-61)26.4 
(1861-71)14.2 
(1871-81)18.0 
(1881-91)  9.7 

(1850)    53.749 
(i860)  102,260 
(1870)  201,871 
(1880    325,989 
(1890)  500,000 

(1851-61)30.6 
(l86l-7x)23.0 
(1871-81)25.38 
(1881-91)21.64 

The  resulting  rate  of  increase  per  cent  per  decade  from 
1765  to  1890-91  is  29.7,  which  gives  the  result  that  the 
French  Canadian  population  has  doubled  itself  every  twenty- 
seven  years.  Malthus  accepted  as  his  standard  a  doubling 
every  twenty-five,  and  the  result  of  our  investigation  practi- 
cally corroborates  his  standard,  and  justifies  to  some  extent 
at  least  the  disproportions  of  his  treatise. 

John  Davidson. 

University  of  New  Brumwick. 


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